Tuesday, 6 November 2012

Obama to win US Presidential election

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President Obama re-elected - just
Tonight President Obama will (I predict) win re-election against Governor Romney but he will have an up hill struggle to accommodate a hostile House of Representatives and tiny majority in the Senate in governing the country.
Obama has faced huge economic problems in his first term but deserves a second chance - witness his achievements:-
  • death of Osama Bin Laden, 
  • passed a Hate Crimes Bill
  • been a champion of clean energy
  • ended the War in Iraq
  • started to wind down the War in Afghanistan
  • expanded healthcare with Obamacare
  • Ended Don't Ask, Don't Tell (DADT) in the armed services

Governor Romney will come very close but fail in his bid for the presidency
The Electoral College of voters may give Obama 303-235 but the narrow victory in the key battleground States demonstrates that he could have so easily lost it. Against a consistent more strategically alert Romney, Obama could have still lost but with the US economy improving at a snail's pace the voters will give him the benefit of the doubt.
[Of course, if you are reading this I am a completely wrong then it shows that Bloggers are as bad as everyone else at predicting elections.]
Here is my prediction:-
State Obama Romney
Alabama   9
Alaska   3
Arizona   11
Arkansas   6
California 55  
Colorado 9  
Connecticut 7  
Delaware 3  
DC 3  
Florida   29
Georgia   16
Hawaii 4  
Idaho   4
Illinois 20  
Indiana   11
Iowa 6  
Kansas   6
Kentucky   8
Louisiana   8
Maine 4  
Maryland 10  
Massachusetts 11  
Michigan 16  
Minnesota 10  
Mississippi   6
Missouri   10
Montana   3
Nebraska   5
Nevada 6  
New Hampshire 4  
New Jersey 14  
New Mexico 5  
New York 29  
North Carolina   15
North Dakota   3
Ohio 18  
Oklahoma   7
Oregon 7  
Pennsylvania 20  
Rhote Island 4  
South Carolina   9
South Dakota   3
Tennessee   11
Texas   38
Utah   6
Vermont 3  
Virginia 13  
Washington 12  
West Virginia   5
Wisconsin 10  
Wyoming   3
TOTAL 303 235
GRAND TOTAL   538
270 to win
If Obama wins Virginia called around 7pm ET and Ohio around 7:30pm ET, then even if Florida goes for Romney at about 8pm ET, I would expect that the television networks will start to call for Obama around 9pm Eastern Time.
I sincerely hope though that Obama will reach across the aisle in his second term and build a new consensus with moderate Republicans to boost the US economy and deliver for the poor, sick and vulnerable. 




1 comment:

  1. Congratulations Mr President!
    I was correct in 49/50 States, so just got Florida wrong, which went to Obama.

    ReplyDelete

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